“The four-quarter rolling average has developed an ominous downward trend for three quarters as economic headwinds tighten their grip on the market, moving into negative territory in year-over-year growth rate in 1Q 2024,” says Dell’Oro’s Dave Bolan, “this suggests that the downward trajectory will last at least one more quarter after the market high in 1Q 2023 falls out of the four-quarter rolling average. In addition, the 5G Mobile Core Network market, based on the four-quarter rolling average, has now decelerated for five quarters in a row.
“Inflation has impacted the ability of some Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) to raise capital, and it has also impacted subscribers when it comes to upgrading their phones to 5G,” adds Bolan, “many MNOs have lowered their CAPEX plans and announced that they have fewer than expected 5G subscribers on their networks; which limits MNOs’ growth plans.”
Based on the four-quarter rolling average trends, CALA and EMEA are trending into negative territory in terms of Y/Y revenue growth rates. North America is also trending into negative territory, while Asia Pacific, including China, is trending positive as of 1Q 2024.
As of 1Q 2024, 51 MNOs have commercially deployed 5G SA eMBB networks with two additional MNOS launching in 1Q 2024.
